12 Market Share Analysis

Estimating the Realistic Target Population for BRCC’s Young Adult Ministry

Prepared for: BRCC Young Adult Ministry Planning Focus: Determining what percentage of the 4,300-5,800 young adults in the service area BRCC could realistically reach Date: February 2026

Executive Summary

This analysis synthesizes national research data from Pew Research Center, Barna Group, Gallup, PRRI, Lifeway Research, the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA), and the book The Great Dechurching to estimate the realistic “addressable market” for BRCC’s young adult ministry.

Key Findings

Of the approximately 4,300-5,800 young adults (ages 22-32) in BRCC’s service area, an estimated 1,200-1,900 are realistically reachable by a new young adult ministry
Roughly 30-35% are already actively churched and unlikely to switch churches
An estimated 15-20% are de-churched — they once attended but stopped, and roughly half of those are open to returning
Indiana is more religious than the national average, with 65% of Hoosiers identifying as Christian (vs. 62% nationally), but the “nones” have doubled from 16% to 31% since 2007
The de-churched population represents the single greatest opportunity — these are people with prior church experience who may return with the right invitation and community
Realistic Year 1 expectations for a new ministry: 20-50 regular participants, growing to 60-120 by Year 3

The Honest Assessment

The numbers are smaller than the raw population data might suggest, but they represent real people with real spiritual needs. A ministry that reaches 50-100 young adults in a community of 5,000 is not failing — it is serving a meaningful percentage of the reachable population and can have outsized impact through those individuals.

Part 1: National Context — Church Attendance Among Young Adults

The Complicated Picture: Two Conflicting Narratives

There are two competing narratives about young adult church attendance in 2025-2026, and the truth lies somewhere in between. Understanding both is essential for realistic planning.

Narrative 1: The Barna “Resurgence” Story

Barna Group’s 2025 data shows a genuine uptick in attendance frequency among those who do attend:

Gen Z churchgoers now attend 1.9 weekends per month (highest of any generation)
Millennial churchgoers attend 1.8 weekends per month
These rates have nearly doubled since 2020, when young churchgoers averaged just over 1 weekend per month
Men are driving the trend: 46% of Gen Z men and 55% of Millennial men reported attending in the past week, compared to 44% of Gen Z women and 38% of Millennial women

This is significant and should not be dismissed. Those young adults who are connected to church are more committed than in recent years.

Sources: Barna - Young Adults Lead Resurgence, Christianity Today - Gen Z Leads Attendance, Barna - Church Attendance Women vs Men

Narrative 2: The Pew “Stability, Not Revival” Story

Pew Research Center’s December 2025 analysis provides important context:

Among adults born 1995-2003, 11% said in 2021 they attended on the prior Sunday; by 2024, that number was 10% — essentially flat
Among those ages 18-30, 31% attend at least monthly — roughly on par with older age groups (not dramatically higher)
The percentage of 18-29 year olds identifying as Christian has declined from 68% (2007) to 55% (2014) to 45% (2024-25)
Among 18-29 year olds, nearly as many are religiously unaffiliated (44%) as identify as Christian (45%)
Pew’s conclusion: “There is no clear trend of either increasing or decreasing religiousness since 2020” for Gen Z

The Pew data suggests that the Barna “resurgence” may reflect increased frequency among the already committed, not an overall increase in the number of young adults attending.

Sources: Pew Research - Religion Holds Steady, Pew - Religious Landscape Study

Reconciling the Two Narratives

The most honest interpretation is:

The overall percentage of young adults who attend church has not significantly increased — it has stabilized after decades of decline
Among those who do attend, commitment is rising — they attend more frequently and are more engaged
The “casual middle” is hollowing out — people are either committed or they have left entirely, with fewer occasional attenders
The result is a smaller but more committed churchgoing population among young adults

What this means for BRCC: Do not expect that a wave of young adults is spontaneously returning to church. The opportunity is real but requires intentional outreach. The good news is that those you do reach are likely to be more committed than in previous decades.

Overall Church Attendance Rates

National rates (all ages):

20-25% attend weekly (Gallup: 20%; Barna: ~25%; Pew: 25%)
30-33% attend at least monthly (Gallup: 30%; Pew: 33%)
55-57% seldom or never attend (Gallup: 57%)
These rates have declined from 42% weekly attendance in 2000 (Gallup)

Young adult rates (ages 18-29):

10-15% attend weekly (Pew: ~10-11% reported attending last Sunday)
~31% attend at least monthly (Pew 2025 data for ages 18-30)
~69% attend less than monthly or not at all

Sources: Gallup - Church Attendance Declined, Pew - Religious Attendance, ChurchTrac - Church Attendance Statistics 2026

Religious Identification Among Young Adults

National data (ages 18-29, from Pew 2023-24 RLS):

45% identify as Christian (down from 68% in 2007)
44% are religiously unaffiliated (“nones” — atheist, agnostic, or “nothing in particular”)
11% other religions or did not answer

PRRI 2024 data on Gen Z:

34% of Gen Z are religiously unaffiliated (PRRI)
~38% of ages 18-29 are unaffiliated (PRRI, slightly different methodology than Pew)

National data (all ages, Pew 2023-24):

62% identify as Christian (40% Protestant, 19% Catholic, 3% other Christian)
29% are religiously unaffiliated (5% atheist, 6% agnostic, 19% “nothing in particular”)
35% of U.S. adults have switched religions since childhood

Sources: Pew - Religious Identity, PRRI - 2024 Census of American Religion, PRRI - Gen Z Fact Sheet, American Survey Center - Gen Z Future of Faith

Part 2: Indiana and Regional Context

Indiana Is More Religious Than the National Average — But the Gap Is Narrowing

Indiana religious affiliation (Pew 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study):

65% of Hoosiers identify as Christian (vs. 62% nationally)
- Evangelical Protestant: 32%
- Catholic: 14%
- Mainline Protestant: 11%
- Other Christian: 8%
31% are religiously unaffiliated (vs. 29% nationally)
- “Nothing in particular”: 21%
- Atheist: 5%
- Agnostic: 4%

The trend is concerning: Indiana’s Christian identification has dropped from 82% (2007) to 72% (2014) to 65% (2023-24) — a 17-percentage-point decline in 16 years. Meanwhile, the unaffiliated have risen from 16% (2007) to 31% (2023-24), nearly doubling.

Indiana is still more religious than the coasts but is following the same trajectory of decline, just from a higher starting point. The Midwest is not immune to secularization.

Sources: Axios Indianapolis - Religious Affiliation Shifting in Indiana, Pew - People in Indiana

Indiana Church Attendance Compared to National

State-level attendance data:

Indiana ranks in the middle tier of states for religiosity — more religious than the Northeast and West Coast, less religious than the Deep South
The most religious states (Mississippi, Alabama, Utah) have 45-50%+ weekly attendance; the least religious (Vermont, New Hampshire) have under 20%
Indiana’s weekly attendance rate is estimated at approximately 25-30%, roughly 3-5 percentage points above the national average of ~20-25%
The Indianapolis metro area specifically shows approximately 69% churched and 31% unchurched according to Barna data

Applying the Indiana adjustment: For young adults specifically, if the national rate of monthly-or-more attendance is ~31%, Indiana’s rate is likely 33-37% given the state’s slightly above-average religiosity. This is not a dramatic difference, but it matters at the margins.

Sources: Pew - How Religious Is Your State, Wikipedia - U.S. States by Religiosity, Barna - Churchless Cities

Hancock County Religious Landscape

ARDA 2020 U.S. Religion Census data for Hancock County (FIPS 18059):

The 2020 U.S. Religion Census (conducted by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies and published through the ARDA) provides county-level data on religious congregations and adherents.

Based on available data:

Hancock County’s 2020 population was approximately 79,840
The county has an estimated 39-45% religious adherence rate (percentage of population counted as adherents by participating religious groups)
This is somewhat below the national adherence rate of approximately 49%, which may reflect the strong nondenominational/independent church presence in the area. Independent and nondenominational churches are historically undercounted in religion census data because they do not report through denominational structures.

What this likely means for Hancock County: The actual rate of church attendance and religious participation is almost certainly higher than the 39-45% adherence figure suggests, because:

Nondenominational churches are the fastest-growing segment in America (21 million adherents nationally, second only to Catholicism), and they are systematically undercounted in religious census data
BRCC itself is nondenominational — churches like BRCC with 1,000+ members may not be fully captured in denominational reporting
Hancock County’s suburban, family-oriented character typically correlates with above-average church participation

Dominant religious traditions in the area: Based on Indiana statewide data and the suburban Indianapolis context, the religious landscape of Hancock County likely includes a strong presence of:

Nondenominational/independent Christian churches (largest and fastest-growing nationally)
Baptist churches (Southern Baptist and independent)
United Methodist churches
Catholic parishes
Christian Church/Churches of Christ (historically strong in Indiana)
Smaller mainline Protestant congregations (Presbyterian, Lutheran, etc.)

Sources: ARDA - Congregational Membership Reports, U.S. Religion Census, Christianity Today - Nondenominational Is Now Largest Segment

Part 3: Young Adult Segmentation

The Framework

To estimate the addressable population, we need to segment the 4,300-5,800 young adults in BRCC’s service area into categories based on their relationship with church. The following framework uses national research data adjusted for Indiana’s slightly above-average religiosity and the suburban Hancock County context.

Important Methodological Notes

Data limitations — stated clearly:

No county-level data exists that specifically measures young adult (ages 22-32) church attendance in Hancock County
The estimates below are constructed from: (a) national survey data from Pew, Barna, Gallup, and PRRI, (b) Indiana state-level adjustments, and (c) suburban demographic adjustments
These are informed estimates, not precise measurements. The ranges reflect this uncertainty.
Where I have made assumptions or adjustments, I have noted them

Adjustment factors applied:

Indiana adjustment: +3 to 5 percentage points above national averages for church participation, based on Indiana’s 65% Christian identification vs. 62% national
Suburban family adjustment: +2 to 3 percentage points, because suburban areas with high family formation rates (like Hancock County) tend to have higher church participation than urban or rural areas — young families with children are more likely to seek church
Age adjustment: Young adults (22-32) attend church at lower rates than the overall adult population; however, the 22-32 range includes both Gen Z (lower attendance) and younger Millennials (slightly higher attendance in recent data)

Segment Definitions and Estimates

Using a midpoint of ~5,000 young adults (ages 22-32) in BRCC’s 10-mile service area for calculation purposes:

Segment 1: Actively Churched (Regular Attenders)

Definition: Attend church weekly or biweekly (2+ times per month). Have a church home. Engaged in the life of a congregation.

National baseline: ~25-31% of young adults attend at least monthly (Pew 2025); of those, roughly 10-15% attend weekly Indiana/suburban adjustment: +5 percentage points for combined Indiana and suburban family factors Estimated range for BRCC service area: 30-35%

Rationale: Pew’s 2025 data shows 31% of ages 18-30 attend at least monthly nationally. Indiana’s above-average religiosity and Hancock County’s family-oriented suburban character push this upward. The 22-32 age range (vs. 18-29) also skews slightly higher because it excludes the least-churched 18-21 year olds and includes more settled young families.

Metric	Low Estimate	Mid Estimate	High Estimate
Percentage	30%	33%	35%
Number (of ~5,000)	1,500	1,650	1,750

Reachability by BRCC: Low. These individuals already have a church home. BRCC would need to offer something compelling enough for them to switch — a difficult and generally undesirable strategy. Some may be loosely connected and open to a church that better meets their needs, but most are not the primary target.

Sources: Pew - Religion Holds Steady, Barna - Young Adults Lead Resurgence

Segment 2: Nominally Churched (Occasional Attenders)

Definition: Attend church occasionally — holidays, special events, when invited — but do not have a consistent church commitment. May identify as Christian but church is not a regular part of life. Attend perhaps 3-10 times per year.

National baseline: Approximately 10-15% of young adults fall in this “occasional” category — they are neither committed regular attenders nor fully disengaged Indiana/suburban adjustment: +2 percentage points Estimated range for BRCC service area: 12-17%

Rationale: This is the “mushy middle” that Pew and Barna data suggest is shrinking — people are increasingly either committed or gone. However, in a family-oriented suburban area, some young adults attend sporadically (Easter, Christmas, when parents visit, when invited by friends) without being committed. In Indiana, cultural Christianity remains stronger than on the coasts, meaning more people maintain a nominal connection.

Metric	Low Estimate	Mid Estimate	High Estimate
Percentage	12%	15%	17%
Number (of ~5,000)	600	750	850

Reachability by BRCC: Medium. These individuals are open to church but have not found one that captures their commitment. A well-designed young adult ministry that offers compelling community and relevant teaching could convert occasional attenders into regular participants. Personal invitation is critical — research shows 63-67% of Americans say a personal invitation from a friend or family member would be effective in getting them to visit a church.

Sources: Barna - Five Trends Among the Unchurched, Lifeway - What Young Adults Look For

Segment 3: De-Churched (Previously Attended, Now Disengaged)

Definition: Grew up attending church or were previously regular attenders but have stopped. Have not attended regularly in 6+ months (many for years). Retain some Christian identity or background but are not active.

National baseline: This is a large and critical segment.

Barna: 29% of U.S. adults are de-churched (previously attended regularly, now do not)
The Great Dechurching (Davis & Graham, 2023): 40 million American adults have left church in the last 25 years — approximately 15.5% of all adults
Lifeway: Two-thirds (66%) of young adults who attended church as teenagers drop out for at least a year between ages 18 and 22
Barna: 59% of young Christians disconnect either permanently or for an extended period after age 15

Indiana/suburban adjustment: -2 percentage points (Indiana’s stronger religious culture means slightly fewer leave, though the trend is present everywhere) Estimated range for BRCC service area: 15-20%

Rationale: This is where the national data and the BRCC context intersect powerfully. Many young adults in Hancock County grew up in church-going families in Indiana, attended youth group, and then drifted away during college or early career. Some moved to Indianapolis and disconnected. Some had bad church experiences. Some just got busy. But they have a foundation of faith and church familiarity.

Metric	Low Estimate	Mid Estimate	High Estimate
Percentage	15%	18%	20%
Number (of ~5,000)	750	900	1,000

Reachability by BRCC: Medium-High. This is arguably the most strategic target segment. Research from The Great Dechurching shows that 51% of the de-churched are willing to return — they just want to be treated well and have good relationships. In the BRCC context, these are people who understand church, have some positive memories, and may be at life stage transitions (marriage, children) that prompt reconsideration. An estimated 375-510 de-churched young adults in the service area may be open to returning.

Sources: Barna - 10 Facts About America’s Churchless, The Great Dechurching - Gospel Coalition Review, Lifeway - Most Teenagers Drop Out, Barna - Six Reasons Young Christians Leave Church

Segment 4: Unchurched but Open

Definition: Do not currently attend church and may not have a significant church background, but would be open to attending if invited or if they found the right fit. May be spiritually curious or seeking community.

National baseline:

Barna: Among churchless people, “nearly half are willing to consider a church based on a friend inviting them”
Lifeway (2016): 35% of unchurched people said they were likely to attend if invited (down from earlier estimates of 82%)
The trend is declining — 20 years ago, 65% of churchless Americans were open to a friend’s invitation; that has fallen significantly

Indiana/suburban adjustment: +2 percentage points (slightly higher openness in Indiana’s cultural context) Estimated range for BRCC service area: 10-13%

Rationale: This segment is smaller than many church leaders assume. Not everyone who is unchurched is open, and the openness rate has been declining over time. However, in a suburban Indiana community where church attendance is culturally normalized, a meaningful minority of unchurched young adults would attend if they found the right community. Life transitions (moving to the area, getting married, having a first child) create natural openness windows.

Metric	Low Estimate	Mid Estimate	High Estimate
Percentage	10%	12%	13%
Number (of ~5,000)	500	600	650

Reachability by BRCC: High (for those who are truly open). These individuals are the “prime targets” — they do not have church loyalty elsewhere and are willing to try. The challenge is finding and connecting with them. Personal relationships, community events, and digital presence are the primary pathways. Not all 500-650 will respond, but those who do are likely to engage deeply.

Sources: Barna - Five Trends Among the Unchurched, Lifeway - Unchurched, Relevant - 80% of Non-Churchgoers Would Go If Invited

Segment 5: Unchurched and Not Seeking

Definition: Have no interest in church. May be atheist, agnostic, or simply indifferent. Church is not on their radar and an invitation would not be welcome or effective.

National baseline:

PRRI 2024: 38% of ages 18-29 are religiously unaffiliated
Pew 2023-24: 44% of ages 18-29 are unaffiliated (atheist, agnostic, or “nothing in particular”)
Not all unaffiliated are hostile — many simply do not think about religion — but a significant portion are firmly disinterested
Of the 43% Barna classifies as unchurched, about 9% have never attended church regularly

Indiana/suburban adjustment: -5 percentage points (Indiana’s stronger religious culture means fewer are firmly disinterested compared to national averages) Estimated range for BRCC service area: 20-28%

Rationale: Even in Indiana, a substantial minority of young adults have no interest in church. This segment has grown significantly — Indiana’s unaffiliated population has nearly doubled from 16% to 31% since 2007. Among young adults nationally, almost half are unaffiliated. Adjusting downward for Indiana’s context, roughly one-quarter of young adults in the service area are not realistic targets for church outreach in the near term.

Metric	Low Estimate	Mid Estimate	High Estimate
Percentage	20%	23%	28%
Number (of ~5,000)	1,000	1,150	1,400

Reachability by BRCC: Low. These individuals are not the primary target for a new young adult ministry. Some may eventually become open through life circumstances, relationships with Christians, or personal crisis, but a ministry strategy should not be built around reaching this segment. Over time, as BRCC’s young adult community becomes visible and attractive, some may become curious — but this is a long-term, indirect outcome, not a programming target.

Sources: PRRI - Gen Z Fact Sheet, Pew - Religious Identity

Summary Segmentation Table

Segment	Est. %	Est. Number (of ~5,000)	Reachable by BRCC?	Strategic Priority
Actively Churched	30-35%	1,500-1,750	Low (already have church home)	Not primary target
Nominally Churched	12-17%	600-850	Medium (need compelling reason)	Secondary target
De-Churched	15-20%	750-1,000	Medium-High (many open to return)	Primary target
Unchurched but Open	10-13%	500-650	High (willing if invited)	Primary target
Not Interested	20-28%	1,000-1,400	Low (not seeking)	Not primary target
TOTAL	100%	~5,000	—	—

Note: These percentages total 87-113% across the ranges, reflecting the uncertainty in each estimate. The midpoint estimates total approximately 101%, which is within rounding tolerance. These are independent estimates for each segment, not a precise decomposition.

Part 4: The De-Churched Factor — The Critical Opportunity

The Scale of the De-Churching

The Great Dechurching by Jim Davis and Michael Graham (2023) represents the most comprehensive research on this phenomenon:

40 million American adults have stopped attending church in the last 25 years
This represents approximately 15.5% of all American adults
It is “the largest and fastest religious shift in American history”

Who Are the De-Churched?

The research identifies distinct categories:

By tradition (of the 40 million):

~20 million: Former Catholics and mainline Protestants (left for largely similar reasons)
~15 million: Former evangelicals, broken into subcategories:
- ~8 million “Cultural Christians”: Attended because of family or culture, never deeply committed
- ~2+ million “Mainstream Evangelicals”: Were genuinely committed but left due to life circumstances
- Remaining: “Exvangelicals” (consciously rejected evangelical Christianity) and “Dechurched BIPOC”
~5 million: Left non-Christian faith communities

By mode of departure:

~30 million (75%) “Casually dechurched”: Left without a specific pain point. Life just… changed. They moved, got busy, had kids with Sunday activities, or simply drifted away.
~10 million (25%) “Church casualties”: Left because of a negative experience — hurt, abuse, judgment, hypocrisy, or fundamental disagreement

This distinction is critical for BRCC: The majority of the de-churched are not angry at the church. They are not making a theological or political statement. They simply stopped going, and no one came after them.

Sources: Gospel Coalition - What Is the Great Dechurching?, WBUR - The Great Dechurching, Religion News - The Great Dechurching

Why Young Adults Leave Church

Barna’s Six Reasons (foundational research):

Churches seem overprotective (23% said “Christians demonize everything outside the church”; 22% said “church ignoring the problems of the real world”)
Experience of Christianity is shallow (31% said “church is boring”; 24% said “faith is not relevant to my career or interests”; 23% said “the Bible is not taught clearly or often enough”)
Tension with science (29% said “churches are out of step with the scientific world”; 25% said “Christianity is anti-science”)
Church experiences on sexuality are simplistic and judgmental (17% said “I have made mistakes and feel judged in church because of them”)
Wrestling with exclusivity of Christianity (struggle with the claim that Christianity is the only true path)
Church feels unfriendly to doubt (36% said they could not “ask my most pressing life questions in church”; 23% had “significant intellectual doubts about my faith”)

Lifeway Research data:

The five most common specific reasons for dropping out between ages 18-22:
- Moving to college and not finding a new church (34%)
- Church members seeming judgmental or hypocritical (32%)
- No longer feeling connected to people in their church (29%)
However, Lifeway also found that historically about two-thirds of dropouts return once they get older

The Great Dechurching findings on specific reasons:

Moved to a new city and never connected with a new church (22% of mainstream evangelical dechurched — the #1 reason)
Services were inconvenient (16%)
Did not feel much love in church (12%)

Sources: Barna - Six Reasons Young Christians Leave Church, Lifeway - 8 Reasons Young Adults Leave, Lifeway - Most Teenagers Drop Out

What Brings the De-Churched Back?

The 51% finding: Of the 40 million Americans who have left church, The Great Dechurching research found that over 20 million (51%) are willing to return today. Their reasons for being willing to return are remarkably simple:

Being treated well — they want positive interpersonal relationships
A good relationship with the church as an institution — not feeling exploited, judged, or used
Genuine community — real relationships, not performative ones

Pew Research (2025) on why people stay in religion:

Believe the religion’s teachings (64%)
Religion fulfills spiritual needs (61%)
Religion gives life meaning (56%)

Barna/Lifeway research on what brings young adults back:

Life transitions: Marriage, having children, moving to a new community — these create “windows of openness”
Personal invitation: A friend or family member asking them to come
Community need: Loneliness, isolation, desire for belonging
Seeking stability: In uncertain times, church provides structure and hope
Spiritual hunger: A growing sense that something is missing

How This Applies to Suburban Indiana

BRCC’s context is almost perfectly positioned for reaching the de-churched:

Life transition pipeline: Young adults moving from Indianapolis to Hancock County suburbs are experiencing multiple transitions simultaneously — new home, often new marriage, soon children. These transitions create peak openness to church.
Cultural memory of church: Indiana has a stronger church-going culture than the coasts. Many young adults in the area grew up attending church. Even if they drifted, the framework is familiar.
The “move” factor: The #1 reason mainstream evangelicals leave church is moving to a new city/area. Many young adults moving to McCordsville, New Palestine, and Cumberland are exactly in this category — they had a church before, moved, and never connected with a new one.
Community need: Suburban transplants lack established social networks. A welcoming church community addresses a felt need.
Family formation: Having a first child is one of the strongest predictors of returning to church. Hancock County’s family-oriented demographics align perfectly.

Part 5: Realistic Addressable Population Estimate

Methodology

The addressable population is calculated by identifying which segments are realistically reachable and applying willingness/response rate estimates to each.

Calculation

Using the midpoint estimates from Part 3:

Segment A: Actively Churched (~1,650)

Reachable subset: ~5% (those loosely connected who might consider switching)
Addressable: ~80 individuals

Segment B: Nominally Churched (~750)

Reachable subset: ~30% (those who could be drawn into regular commitment with the right ministry)
Addressable: ~225 individuals

Segment C: De-Churched (~900)

Reachable subset: ~40% (those willing to return, based on the 51% willingness rate minus those who will return to a different church)
Addressable: ~360 individuals

Segment D: Unchurched but Open (~600)

Reachable subset: ~35% (those who would actually respond to an invitation or outreach)
Addressable: ~210 individuals

Segment E: Not Interested (~1,150)

Reachable subset: ~2% (rare conversions through relationships or life crisis)
Addressable: ~25 individuals

Total Addressable Population

Segment	Total in Area	Reachable %	Addressable Number
Actively Churched	~1,650	~5%	~80
Nominally Churched	~750	~30%	~225
De-Churched	~900	~40%	~360
Unchurched but Open	~600	~35%	~210
Not Interested	~1,150	~2%	~25
TOTAL	~5,050	~18%	~900

Conservative estimate: ~700 addressable young adults Mid estimate: ~900 addressable young adults Optimistic estimate: ~1,200 addressable young adults

What “Addressable” Means

“Addressable” does not mean “will walk through BRCC’s doors next Sunday.” It means these individuals could potentially be reached by a church like BRCC over a multi-year period if the church:

Has a visible, attractive young adult ministry
Engages in active outreach and marketing
Leverages personal invitations from existing members
Meets people at points of life transition
Builds a reputation in the community

BRCC is not the only church in the area. Multiple churches compete for the same addressable population. A realistic market share for BRCC might be:

Year 1: 3-6% of addressable population = 20-55 regular participants Year 2: 5-9% of addressable population = 35-80 regular participants Year 3: 7-13% of addressable population = 50-120 regular participants Mature ministry (Year 5+): 10-17% of addressable population = 70-150 regular participants

These projections assume:

Dedicated staff (at least part-time) leading the ministry
Consistent programming (weekly gatherings, small groups)
Active outreach and marketing
Strong personal invitation culture
Quality children’s programming (for young families)
The addressable population grows as the area’s overall population grows

Part 6: Implications for BRCC Ministry Planning

1. Set Realistic Expectations From Day One

The data supports the following Year 1 expectations:

Launch attendance: 30-50 at a kickoff event (including existing BRCC members in the age range)
Regular weekly/biweekly attendance by Month 6: 15-30
Regular attendance by Month 12: 20-40
Active small group participants: 10-25

These numbers may feel small. They are not small — they represent a meaningful percentage of the reachable population in a startup year. Church plants typically take 3-5 years to reach 100 people, and BRCC has the advantage of existing infrastructure and brand.

The leadership conversation: “If we invest $60-90K and have 25 committed, growing young adults after Year 1, is that success?” The data says yes. That represents capturing 3-5% of the addressable market in the first year.

2. The De-Churched Are Your Primary Target

Of the ~900 addressable young adults, the de-churched segment (~360) represents the largest single opportunity. These individuals:

Have prior church experience (lower barrier to entry)
Are going through life transitions that create openness (moving, marrying, having children)
Are most likely to respond to personal invitations from friends
Need to see that BRCC is different from whatever caused them to leave

Strategic implication: Ministry messaging, programming, and culture should specifically address de-churched concerns:

“We welcome your questions and doubts”
“Real community, not performance”
“Come as you are” (genuine, not cliche)
Address the reasons people left: judgment, shallowness, irrelevance, lack of connection

3. Personal Invitation Is the #1 Growth Strategy

Across all the research — Barna, Lifeway, Pew, The Great Dechurching — personal invitation from a friend or family member is the most effective way to reach the unchurched and de-churched. Digital marketing and events matter, but relationships drive decisions.

63-67% of Americans say a personal invitation from a friend or family member would be effective in getting them to visit a church
The de-churched are most likely to return when someone they know and trust invites them

Strategic implication: Train and mobilize BRCC’s existing young adults (and all members) to invite their unchurched friends, neighbors, and coworkers. The most important “marketing” is relational.

4. Life Transitions Are Your Windows of Opportunity

The research consistently shows that people are most open to church during major life transitions:

Moving to a new area (the #1 reason people leave church is also the #1 opportunity to gain them)
Getting married
Having a first child
Experiencing a crisis (health, job loss, relationship breakdown)

BRCC’s location in a high-growth area means a constant stream of young adults experiencing the “move” transition. A strategy for connecting with new residents is essential.

5. The Population Is Growing — Time Is on Your Side

The demographic analysis (02 Local Demographics, 03 Demographic Trends Analysis) shows the service area population growing rapidly:

Hancock County: 3.1% annual growth
McCordsville: 4.17% annual growth, projected to reach 40,000 by 2045
Prime-age population (25-54): projected to grow 44% by 2050

This means the addressable population is not static. By 2030, the ~900 addressable young adults could grow to 1,100-1,400 as the area’s total young adult population expands. A ministry planted now has a growing market ahead of it.

6. Competition Matters — But Is Not Fully Mapped

This analysis estimates that ~1,500-1,750 young adults are already actively churched. Those are attending churches in the area — churches that may or may not have strong young adult ministry. A separate competitive analysis (identified as a gap in the Critical Analysis document) is needed to understand:

Which churches in the service area have active young adult ministries?
How effectively are they serving the 22-32 demographic?
Where are the gaps that BRCC could fill?
What is BRCC’s unique value proposition vs. these alternatives?

Without this information, the market share estimates above are necessarily imprecise. If several churches already have strong young adult programs, BRCC’s realistic share would be at the lower end of the range. If few churches are actively targeting this demographic, the upper range is achievable.

7. Quality Over Quantity

A ministry of 30-50 committed young adults who are growing in faith, building authentic relationships, serving their community, and becoming leaders in the church is a significant achievement. The temptation will be to measure success purely by attendance numbers. Resist this.

Better metrics for Years 1-3:

Are participants growing spiritually? (Self-reported and observed)
Are authentic relationships forming? (Small group participation, organic social connections)
Are young adults serving in the broader church? (Integration, not isolation)
Are participants inviting friends? (Organic growth indicator)
Are life transformations happening? (Baptisms, marriages strengthened, faith renewed)

Part 7: Summary and Honest Assessment

What the Data Tells Us

The opportunity is real but bounded. There are approximately 4,300-5,800 young adults in the service area, but only about 700-1,200 are realistically addressable by a new church ministry.
Indiana’s context helps. The state’s above-average religiosity means a higher percentage of young adults have church backgrounds and are open to returning than in many other parts of the country.
The de-churched are the key. An estimated 750-1,000 young adults in the area once attended church but stopped. Over half of them would be willing to return with the right invitation and community. This is the primary opportunity.
Growth will be gradual. A realistic trajectory is 20-40 regular participants in Year 1, growing to 60-120 by Year 3, and 70-150 in a mature ministry. This requires sustained investment and patience.
Personal relationships drive growth. No amount of marketing replaces a friend saying, “Come check out my church.”
The growing population provides tailwind. Unlike many ministry contexts where the target population is static or declining, BRCC’s service area is growing rapidly. The addressable market will expand over time.

What the Data Does NOT Tell Us

How many of the actively churched are satisfied. Some of the 1,500-1,750 actively churched young adults may be loosely connected and open to switching. Without local survey data, this is unknown.
What specific churches are serving the area. The competitive landscape remains unmapped.
How many young adults are already at BRCC. If BRCC already has 50-100 young adults in the 22-32 range, the starting point for ministry is much stronger than if it has 10-15.
The exact local de-churched population. National percentages are applied to local population — actual numbers could be higher or lower.
Whether BRCC’s culture and programming will appeal to the target. Cultural fit between BRCC and young adults in the area is an assumption that needs testing.

The Bottom Line for Church Leadership

Should BRCC launch a young adult ministry? The data supports yes — there is a meaningful addressable population of 700-1,200 young adults who could potentially be reached, and that number is growing.

What should leadership expect? Modest but meaningful growth in Years 1-2, building to a healthy ministry of 60-150 regular participants within 3-5 years. This is not a megachurch young adult program — it is a community-sized ministry appropriate to BRCC’s context.

What is the required investment? The research from the Critical Analysis document estimates $60 - 90 K ann u a ll y f or d e d i c a t e d s t a ff an d p ro g r ammin g . T h ecos t - p er - p erso nma y f ee l hi g hin e a r l yye a rs ($ 2,000-3,000 per regular participant in Year 1) but declines as the ministry grows and becomes self-sustaining.

What is the risk of NOT acting? Given the rapid population growth in the area and the window of opportunity to reach young adults during life transitions, delay has a real cost. Other churches that establish strong young adult presence first will be harder to compete with later.

Sources

Primary Research Sources

Pew Research Center:

Barna Group:

Gallup:

PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute):

Lifeway Research:

ARDA (Association of Religion Data Archives):

U.S. Religion Census:

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Books and Major Reports

Davis, Jim and Michael Graham. The Great Dechurching: Who’s Leaving, Why Are They Going, and What Will It Take to Bring Them Back? Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 2023.
American Survey Center - Generation Z and the Future of Faith in America

Chris Shinkle's Notes

Explorer