Chris Shinkle's Notes

02 Local Demographics

10 min read

Local Demographics Report

Young Adult Ministry Research for Brookville Road Community Church

Executive Summary

The BRCC service area shows significant opportunity for young adult ministry, with strong population growth, a younger median age than the state average, and a concentration of millennials and Gen Z residents. Key findings:

  • Hancock County is one of the fastest-growing counties in Indiana (3.1% annual growth rate)
  • McCordsville has the youngest median age (35.3 years) and is growing 6.62% annually
  • Strong suburban migration from Indianapolis is bringing young professionals and families to the area
  • Gen Z cohort is larger than millennials in Indiana, representing future ministry potential
  • Prime-age population (25-54) projected to grow 44% in Hancock County by 2050

Geographic Layer 1: Immediate Area (5-10 Mile Radius)

New Palestine (Town)

Location: Center point, home to BRCC Population (2025): 3,708 Median Age: 42.9 years Median Household Income: $93,170

Young Adult Demographic (Ages 22-32):

  • 18-24 age group: 4.4% of population (~163 individuals)
  • 25-44 age group: 22.9% of population (~849 individuals)
  • Estimated 22-32 age range: ~400-500 individuals in town proper

Key Characteristics:

  • Small town with high median income
  • 96.1% White, relatively homogeneous
  • Older median age suggests established families
  • Strong educational and economic foundation

Sources: Indiana Demographics - New Palestine, Data USA - New Palestine, World Population Review

McCordsville (5 miles NW)

Population (2024): 11,744 Median Age: 35.3 years (YOUNGEST in area) Median Household Income: $113,495 (HIGHEST in area) Growth Rate: 6.62% annual growth (2022-2023)

Young Adult Demographic:

  • 25-44 age group: 32.6% of population (~3,830 individuals)
  • Estimated 22-32 age range: ~1,500-2,000 individuals

Key Characteristics:

  • Explosive growth (859% since 2000, growing faster than 98% of similar cities)
  • Young professionals and families moving from Indianapolis
  • High household income suggests dual-income professional households
  • More diverse than New Palestine (76.4% White, 14.6% Black, 4.1% Hispanic)
  • Strong potential for young married couples and young families

Ministry Implications: McCordsville represents the HIGHEST opportunity area - young, wealthy, rapidly growing, and within easy driving distance.

Sources: Indiana Demographics - McCordsville, Data USA - McCordsville, World Population Review

Cumberland (7 miles W, Marion County border)

Population (2023): 6,419 Median Age: 38.3 years Median Household Income: $84,167

Key Characteristics:

  • Located in Hancock County, immediately on Marion County border
  • 24% growth since 2010
  • More diverse (73.6% White, 11.5% Black, 9.9% Hispanic)
  • Gateway community between Indianapolis and Hancock County suburbs
  • Young professional commuters to Indianapolis

Ministry Implications: Cumberland serves as a connector community with ties to both Indianapolis urban area and Hancock County suburbs.

Sources: Indiana Demographics - Cumberland, Data USA - Cumberland

Geographic Layer 2: Regional Area (15-20 Mile Radius)

Greenfield (County Seat, 10 miles E)

Population (2024): 26,268 Median Age: 38.1 years Median Household Income: $74,949

Young Adult Demographic:

  • 15-24 age group: 12.4% (~3,257 individuals)
  • 25-44 age group: 27.7% (~7,276 individuals)
  • 25-29 age group: 1,908 individuals (largest single age bracket at 8.29%)
  • Estimated 22-32 age range: ~3,500-4,000 individuals

Key Characteristics:

  • Largest town in Hancock County
  • More economically diverse (lower median income than New Palestine)
  • Steady 2.7% growth
  • 91.6% White, relatively homogeneous
  • Traditional small town with growing suburban influence

Ministry Implications: Larger population base, but further distance. Represents a more established market with potential competition from other churches.

Sources: Indiana Demographics - Greenfield, Data USA - Greenfield, Census QuickFacts

Fortville (6 miles N)

Population (2024): 4,814 Median Age: 36.6 years Median Household Income: $82,763 Growth Rate: 1.6% annual

Key Characteristics:

  • Small town, stable growth
  • 52% of families have children under 18 (HIGH family concentration)
  • 63% of residents over 15 are married
  • 87.3% White
  • More traditional family-oriented community

Ministry Implications: Strong family orientation suggests potential for young families with children, though smaller population base.

Sources: Indiana Demographics - Fortville, Data USA - Fortville

Geographic Layer 3: County-Level Analysis

Hancock County

Population (2025 projection): 91,525 Current Population: 88,810 Median Age: 40.2 years Median Household Income: $91,326 Growth Rate: 3.1% annual (3.7% in 2023)

Young Adult Demographics:

  • Ages 18-34: 18% of insured population (~16,000 individuals)
  • Estimated total 18-34 population: ~18,000-20,000
  • Estimated 22-32 age range: ~10,000-12,000 individuals countywide

Key Trends:

  • 2nd fastest-growing county in Indiana (behind only Boone County)
  • Prime-age population (25-54) projected to grow 44% by 2050
  • 25% total population growth projected by 2050
  • Strong net in-migration, particularly from Indianapolis metro
  • 89.3% White, 3.2% Hispanic, 3.2% Multiracial

Growth Drivers:

  • Suburban expansion from Indianapolis
  • More affordable housing than Indianapolis proper
  • Strong schools and family-friendly communities
  • Easy access to Indianapolis jobs via I-70

Ministry Implications: Hancock County is experiencing a generational shift toward younger residents. The 44% growth in prime-age population represents a massive opportunity for ministry focused on young professionals, newlyweds, and young families.

Sources: Census QuickFacts - Hancock County, Indiana Demographics - Hancock County, Data USA - Hancock County, IBRC - Indiana Population Projections

Marion County (Western Border)

Population (2025 projection): 987,639 Current Population: 981,628 Median Age: 34.3 years (6 years YOUNGER than Hancock County) Median Household Income: $63,450 Growth Rate: 0.6% annual

Young Adult Demographics:

  • Significantly higher concentration of young adults due to urban center
  • Median age 6 years younger than Hancock County
  • Estimated 22-32 age range: ~150,000-180,000 individuals (countywide)

Key Characteristics:

  • Indianapolis is the urban core
  • Much more diverse: 50.5% White, 27.3% Black, 13.4% Hispanic
  • Lower median income than Hancock County
  • Slower growth overall (0.6% vs 3.1%)
  • Young professionals are leaving Marion County for Hancock County suburbs

Migration Pattern:

  • Marion County median age (34.3) suggests young adult concentration
  • Hancock County growth rate (3.1%) suggests young adults maturing and moving to suburbs
  • Classic urban-to-suburban migration pattern for young professionals/families

Ministry Implications: Marion County (Indianapolis) is the source market for Hancock County’s growth. Young adults start in Indianapolis for jobs/urban lifestyle, then move to Hancock County suburbs (like New Palestine area) for family formation. BRCC is positioned at the receiving end of this migration pipeline.

Sources: Census QuickFacts - Marion County, Indiana Demographics - Marion County, Data USA - Marion County

Regional Context: Indianapolis Metro Area

11-County Metro Population: 2.2+ million Recent Growth: +26,661 residents in 2024 (60% of Indiana’s net growth) Growth Since 2020: +85,000 residents

Young Adult Trends:

  • Millennial population growth: 5.2% (highest in regional top 10 metros)
  • Gen Z cohort is LARGER than Millennials in Indiana
  • Strong international immigration (43,000 since 2020) bringing younger workers
  • National trend: Millennials moving from urban cores to suburbs due to housing costs

Suburban Growth Pattern:

  • Boone County: 3.4% growth (fastest in Indiana)
  • Hancock County: 3.1% growth (2nd fastest)
  • Indianapolis suburbs will account for majority of metro growth through 2050
  • Metro area will grow 19.3% by 2050, mostly in suburban counties

Ministry Implications: BRCC is located in the epicenter of Indianapolis metro suburban growth. The combination of millennial/Gen Z concentration in Indianapolis and strong suburban migration creates a “pipeline” of young adults moving through life stages - from urban singles/couples to suburban young families.

Sources: Axios Indianapolis - Suburban Growth, IBRC - Population Projections, IBRC - Prime Age Projections, Indy Chamber - Net Migration

Young Adult Life Stages in the BRCC Service Area

Based on demographic analysis, young adults (22-32) in the BRCC area likely fall into these life stage categories:

1. College Students (18-22)

  • Population: Relatively small in immediate area (no major universities nearby)
  • Characteristics: Likely commuting to Indianapolis area colleges or attending smaller regional schools
  • Ministry Challenge: Transient, may maintain home church ties elsewhere

2. Young Professionals - Single (22-26)

  • Population: Concentrated in Indianapolis/Marion County
  • Characteristics: Working in Indianapolis, living in urban or inner-ring suburbs
  • Migration Pattern: This group is the “feeder” for future BRCC area residents
  • Ministry Opportunity: Limited direct reach, but future potential

3. Young Professionals - Partnered/Engaged (24-28)

  • Population: Beginning to appear in McCordsville, Cumberland, New Palestine
  • Characteristics: Dual-income, no kids yet, purchasing first homes
  • Migration Pattern: Actively moving from Indianapolis to Hancock County suburbs
  • Ministry Opportunity: HIGH - in transition, seeking community, open to church involvement

4. Young Families (26-32)

  • Population: LARGEST group in BRCC service area
  • Characteristics: Married, 0-2 young children, established in careers
  • Location: McCordsville (highest concentration), Fortville, New Palestine, Cumberland
  • Ministry Opportunity: HIGHEST - seeking children’s programs, parenting support, couples community

5. Established Young Families (30-35)

  • Population: Aging out of “young adult” but still relevant
  • Characteristics: Multiple children, career advancement, community involvement
  • Ministry Opportunity: Leadership potential for young adult ministry

Key Demographic Insights for Ministry Planning

1. Geographic Targeting Priority

Based on population, growth, and median age:

Tier 1 (Highest Priority):

  • McCordsville: Youngest, wealthiest, fastest-growing, 5 miles from BRCC
  • Cumberland: Gateway community, diverse, Marion County connection

Tier 2:

  • New Palestine: Home base, smaller but stable
  • Fortville: Family-oriented, smaller population

Tier 3:

  • Greenfield: Larger population but further distance, more established church presence

2. Life Stage Focus

The data strongly suggests focusing on:

  • Young married couples (pre-children and 0-2 kids): Largest segment actively moving to area
  • Young families: Already in area, seeking community and children’s programming

Secondary Focus:

  • Young singles: Smaller population in immediate area, but pipeline from Indianapolis

3. Demographic Advantages for BRCC

  • Location: Southern Hancock County, near Marion County line = perfect position for suburban migration
  • Timing: Growth is happening NOW (3.1-6.62% annual rates)
  • Income Levels: Target demographic is affluent (113K median household income)
  • Family Orientation: High marriage rates and family formation in service area
  • Existing Infrastructure: BRCC already has 1,000+ members, strong children’s/youth programs

4. Potential Challenges

  • Small town base: New Palestine itself is only 3,700 people
  • Competition: Other churches are likely targeting same demographic
  • Commute distance: Young adults working in Indianapolis may prefer churches closer to work
  • Cultural fit: Urban young adults may find small town church culture unfamiliar

5. Market Size Estimate

Conservative Estimate - Young Adults (22-32) in BRCC Primary Service Area (10-mile radius):

  • New Palestine: 400-500
  • McCordsville: 1,500-2,000
  • Cumberland: 800-1,000
  • Fortville: 600-800
  • Other communities: 1,000-1,500
  • Total Primary Market: ~4,300-5,800 young adults

Expanded Estimate - Including 15-mile radius (Greenfield, other communities):

  • Total Expanded Market: ~7,000-9,000 young adults

Regional Context - Hancock County total:

  • Total County: ~10,000-12,000 young adults (ages 22-32)

Marketing and Outreach Implications

Geographic Marketing Strategy

1. Hyper-Local (5-mile radius):

  • Focus: McCordsville, New Palestine, Cumberland, Fortville
  • Methods: Local social media targeting, community events, neighborhood connections
  • Message: “Your church home in southern Hancock County”

2. Regional (15-mile radius):

  • Focus: Greenfield, broader Hancock County
  • Methods: Digital advertising, county-wide events
  • Message: “A growing church family for young adults and families”

3. Indianapolis/Marion County:

  • Focus: Young professionals considering suburban move
  • Methods: Digital presence, workplace connections, Indianapolis events
  • Message: “Make BRCC your church before you make New Palestine your home”

Demographic-Specific Messaging

  • High-income young families: Emphasize quality children’s programs, community, family values
  • Diverse populations: Highlight inclusivity (especially for Cumberland, McCordsville outreach)
  • Urban-to-suburban transplants: Emphasize authentic community, small group connections, life stage transitions
  • Established residents: Emphasize BRCC’s 40+ year history, family atmosphere, local roots

Questions for Further Research

  1. Competition Analysis: What other churches are actively ministering to young adults in this area?
  2. Current BRCC Data: What % of current 1,000+ members are ages 22-32? Where do they live?
  3. Commute Patterns: How many young adults in the area work in Indianapolis vs locally?
  4. Housing Development: What new housing developments are planned in McCordsville/Cumberland/New Palestine?
  5. College/University: Are there any nearby college satellite campuses or commuter populations?

Data Notes and Methodology

  • Age Range Definition: “Young Adult” defined as ages 22-32 (post-college through early family formation)
  • Estimates: Where specific 22-32 age data was unavailable, estimates were calculated from broader age brackets (18-24, 25-44)
  • Currency: Data primarily from 2023-2025 sources, with projections to 2050 where available
  • Geographic Definitions: Radii calculated from BRCC location at 7480 US-52, New Palestine, IN 46163

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