Chris Shinkle's Notes

03 Demographic Trends Analysis

16 min read

Demographic Trends Analysis (2020-2050)

Historical Growth, Current Trajectories, and Future Projections

Executive Summary

The BRCC service area is experiencing historic population growth that will fundamentally reshape ministry opportunities over the next 25 years. Key findings:

  • McCordsville: 32% growth since 2020 (fastest in area)
  • New Palestine: 38% growth since 2020
  • Hancock County: 11% growth since 2020 (2nd fastest county in Indiana)
  • Marion County: Slight growth (0.6% annually) with continued suburban out-migration

Current Momentum (2024-2025)

  • Hancock County growing at 3.1% annually
  • McCordsville growing at 4.17% annually
  • Growth is accelerating, not slowing

Future Projections (2025-2050)

  • Hancock County: 25%+ population growth by 2050
  • Prime-age population (25-54): 44% growth by 2050
  • Indianapolis metro area: 405,000 new residents by 2050
  • 60% of growth will occur by 2030 (next 5 years are critical)

Ministry Implication: The window of opportunity is NOW. Young adult ministry launched in 2026 will be positioned to serve a dramatically expanding population through 2030 and beyond.

New Palestine

2020 Census: 2,781 2024 Population: 3,118 2025 Projection: 3,708 5-Year Growth: 37.76% (927 people) Current Annual Growth Rate: 2.4%

Year-by-Year Breakdown:

  • 2020: 2,781 (baseline)
  • 2021: 2,897 (+116, +4.2%)
  • 2022: 3,265 (+368, +12.7%) ← Largest single-year jump
  • 2023: 3,541 (+276, +8.5%)
  • 2024: 3,118 (data reconciliation)
  • 2025: 3,708 (projected)

Key Insights:

  • Peak growth in 2021-2022: 12.7% single-year increase suggests major development or migration event
  • Sustained high growth: Even with data variations, consistent strong expansion
  • Long-term trajectory: 175.9% growth since 2000 (one of fastest-growing small towns in region)

Young Adult Impact:

  • If 20-30 age group maintains proportion (~12-15% of population), added 111-139 young adults since 2020
  • At current growth rate, will add another 50-70 young adults by 2030

Sources: Neilsberg - New Palestine Population, Biggest US Cities, World Population Review

McCordsville (Highest Priority for Ministry)

2020 Census: 8,888 2022: 9,098 2023: 9,700 (+6.62% in one year!) 2024: 11,744 2025 Projection: 12,234 5-Year Growth: 32.13% (2,856 people) Current Annual Growth Rate: 4.17%

Long-term Context:

  • Since 2000: 859.4% growth (from ~1,100 to ~11,744)
  • Growing faster than 98% of similarly-sized cities in America
  • One of the fastest-growing communities in entire state of Indiana

Future Plans:

  • Housing approved for 20,000 residents in next decade
  • Projected to reach 40,000 people within 20 years
  • Massive development still in planning/construction phases

Key Insights:

  • Explosive recent acceleration: 6.62% growth in 2022-2023 is extraordinary
  • Sustained momentum: Not a one-time spike, but consistent rapid expansion
  • Infrastructure-driven: Approved housing developments will fuel continued growth
  • Young professional target: Median age (35.3) and high income ($113K) indicate young families moving in

Young Adult Impact:

  • Estimated 25-44 age group: 32.6% of population = ~3,830 people currently
  • Since 2020, likely added 800-1,000 young adults (25-44)
  • By 2030: Could reach 6,000+ young adults (25-44) if growth continues

Ministry Implications:

  • McCordsville is THE priority target for young adult outreach
  • 5-6 miles from BRCC = reasonable driving distance
  • Young, wealthy, family-forming demographic = ideal ministry fit
  • Population will more than DOUBLE in next 15-20 years

Sources: World Population Review - McCordsville, Greenfield Reporter - McCordsville Growth, Indiana Demographics

Cumberland

2010: 5,169 2020: ~6,000 (estimated) 2021: 12.6% growth reported 2023: 6,419 5-Year Growth: ~7-10% (estimated)

Key Insights:

  • More moderate growth than McCordsville, but still strong
  • Border location (Hancock/Marion County line) makes it gateway community
  • More diverse than other area communities (73.6% White, 11.5% Black, 9.9% Hispanic)

Sources: Indiana Demographics - Cumberland, Data USA - Cumberland

Greenfield (County Seat)

2020 Census: 23,552 2021: 24,163 (+611, +2.6%) 2022: 24,795 (+632, +2.6%) 2023: 25,920 (+1,125, +4.5%) 2024: 26,268 (+348, +1.3%) 2025 Projection: ~26,600 5-Year Growth: 11.53% (2,716 people) Current Annual Growth Rate: 1.4%

Key Insights:

  • Steady, consistent growth (not explosive like McCordsville)
  • Largest town in Hancock County provides stability
  • Spike in 2023 suggests development activity
  • More economically diverse (median income 113K in McCordsville)

Sources: Neilsberg - Greenfield, Indiana Demographics - Greenfield, World Population Review

Fortville

2020: ~4,400 (estimated) 2024: 4,814 2025 Projection: 4,964 5-Year Growth: ~9-10% Current Annual Growth Rate: 1.6%

Key Insights:

  • Smaller community with moderate growth
  • In 2020-2021: Issued 154 single-family home permits (strong development)
  • 6.1% growth estimated in 2019

Sources: Indiana Demographics - Fortville, Greenfield Reporter - Census Data

Hancock County (BRCC’s Primary Market)

2010 Census: 70,246 2020 Census: 79,840 2023: 86,176 2024: 88,810 2025 Projection: 91,525 Current Annual Growth Rate: 3.1%

Growth Analysis:

  • 2010-2020: +9,594 (+13.7% over decade)
  • 2020-2025: +11,685 (+14.6% in just 5 years!)
  • Growth is accelerating, not slowing

National Context:

  • 2nd fastest-growing county in Indiana (only behind Boone County at 3.4%)
  • Represents a “striking change” from past 20 years when Hamilton, Hendricks, and Johnson counties led growth
  • Hancock County’s emergence as growth leader signals suburban expansion is reaching further east

Prime-Age Population (25-54) Trends:

  • This demographic critical for young adult ministry
  • Historically stable, now beginning significant expansion
  • Strong net in-migration driving growth
  • Generation Z cohort entering this age range will fuel growth

Sources: Stats Indiana - Hancock County, Hancock EDC - Fastest Growing, Census QuickFacts

Marion County (Source Market for Hancock County)

2020 Census: ~976,000 2025 Projection: 987,639 5-Year Growth: ~11,639 (+1.2%) Current Annual Growth Rate: 0.6%

Key Trends:

  • Slow overall growth compared to Hancock County (0.6% vs 3.1%)
  • Continued suburban out-migration: Net domestic migration still negative
  • Natural increase keeps population stable: Births outnumber deaths 2-to-1

Historical Context:

  • 2001-2008: More than half of Marion County migrants settled elsewhere in greater Indianapolis metro
  • Marion County had largest absolute net outflow over previous decade: ~30,500 residents
  • Long-standing pattern: Young professionals start in Indianapolis, move to suburbs for family formation

Young Adult Pattern:

  • Median age in Marion County: 34.3 years (6 years younger than Hancock at 40.2)
  • This age gap suggests Marion County is where young adults live when single/early career
  • Hancock County is where they move when ready to settle down
  • Classic urban-to-suburban lifecycle migration

Ministry Implications:

  • Marion County young adults are the “feeder population” for Hancock County
  • As they age from 25 to 30, many will relocate to areas like New Palestine
  • BRCC should consider how to connect with Indianapolis young adults before they move
  • Digital/online ministry presence could engage future residents

Sources: Hoosier Data - Marion County, Encyclopedia of Indianapolis - Population, IBRC - Migration Trends, Census QuickFacts

Part 3: Future Projections (2025-2050)

Hancock County Projections

2025: 91,525 (current projection) 2030: ~103,000 (estimated, based on 3.1% annual growth) 2050: 111,800+ (25%+ growth from 2020 baseline of 79,840)

Prime-Age Population (25-54) Projections:

  • 44% growth over next three decades
  • This is the core young adult → young family demographic
  • One of highest growth rates in Indiana for this age group

Key Drivers:

  • Continued suburban expansion from Indianapolis
  • Generation Z cohort entering prime age years
  • Strong net in-migration patterns
  • Housing development and infrastructure investment

Front-Loaded Growth:

  • 60% of projected growth will occur by 2030
  • Next 5 years (2025-2030) are critical window
  • Growth will slow after 2040 due to declining birth rates statewide

Sources: IBRC - Prime Age Projections, IBRC - Population Projections to 2060, Stats Indiana - Projections

Indianapolis Metro Area (11-County) Projections

2020: 2.1 million 2050: 2.5 million (+405,000 residents, +19.3% growth)

Growth Distribution:

  • Metro will outgrow the state: Indianapolis metro share of Indiana population rises from 31% (2020) to 35% (2050)
  • Suburban counties will drive growth: Hancock County projected as one of fastest-growing
  • 60% of growth by 2030: Next 5 years are the boom period

National Context:

  • Millennial population growth in Indianapolis: 5.2% (highest in regional top 10 metros)
  • Strong international immigration: 43,000 since 2020
  • National trend: Millennials moving from urban cores to suburbs due to housing costs

Sources: IBRC - Population Projections, Axios Indianapolis - Suburban Growth, Indy Chamber - Net Migration

McCordsville Projections (Specific Community)

2025: 12,234 2030: ~15,000-18,000 (based on current trajectory) 2035: 20,000 (official town planning target) 2045: 40,000 (town manager projection)

Housing Development:

  • Sufficient housing already approved to reach 20,000 residents
  • Major town center development underway
  • Infrastructure investments supporting expansion

Timeline:

  • Next 10 years: Double current population (to ~20,000)
  • Next 20 years: Nearly 4x current population (to ~40,000)

Young Adult Impact:

  • At 32.6% concentration (25-44 age group):
    • 2025: ~4,000 young adults (25-44)
    • 2030: ~5,000-6,000 young adults
    • 2035: ~6,500 young adults
    • 2045: ~13,000 young adults

Ministry Implication: A young adult ministry launched in 2026 could serve a market 3-4 times larger by 2045.

Sources: Greenfield Reporter - McCordsville Growth

Generation Z (Born 1997-2012, Currently 14-29 years old)

National Indiana Context:

  • Gen Z cohort is LARGER than Millennials in Indiana
  • This reverses decades of declining birth rates
  • Gen Z will enter prime-age years (25-54) over next 15 years

Young Adult Ministry Impact:

  • Current college-age Gen Z will age into peak young adult years (22-28) by 2030
  • Larger cohort size = more young adults available for ministry
  • Gen Z characteristics differ from Millennials (more on this in separate research)

Timeline:

  • 2026: Oldest Gen Z are 29, youngest are 14
  • 2030: Oldest Gen Z are 33, youngest are 18 (entire generation in young adult range)
  • 2035: Oldest Gen Z are 38, starting to age out of “young adult” but into leadership roles

Millennials (Born 1981-1996, Currently 30-45 years old)

Current Status:

  • Largest living generation nationally
  • 5.2% millennial growth in Indianapolis metro (highest in regional top 10)
  • Now in family formation stage (prime target for BRCC)

Young Adult Ministry Impact:

  • Older millennials (35-45) aging out of “young adult” category but natural leaders
  • Younger millennials (30-35) in sweet spot for young family ministry
  • Millennial parents of young children = strong draw to churches with children’s programs

Timeline:

  • 2026: Millennials are 30-45 (some still “young adults,” most “young families”)
  • 2030: Millennials are 34-49 (leadership age)
  • 2035: Millennials are 39-54 (prime age population, community leaders)

Sources: IBRC - Prime Age Projections

Part 5: Migration Patterns

Urban-to-Suburban Lifecycle Migration

Pattern Observed:

  1. Early 20s: Young professionals live in Indianapolis (Marion County)

    • Median age: 34.3 years
    • Urban amenities, proximity to jobs
    • Renting, single or young couples

  2. Mid-to-Late 20s: Begin considering suburban move

    • Marriage, first home purchase
    • Seeking better schools, more space
    • Still working in Indianapolis (commuting)

  3. Late 20s-Early 30s: Relocate to Hancock County suburbs

    • McCordsville, New Palestine, Cumberland, Fortville
    • Median age in suburbs: 35-40 years
    • Family formation, homeownership
    • Settled for long-term

Data Supporting This Pattern:

  • Marion County: Median age 34.3, slow growth (0.6%), net out-migration
  • Hancock County: Median age 40.2, rapid growth (3.1%), net in-migration
  • 6-year age gap between counties suggests lifecycle transition

Ministry Implications:

  • Young adult ministry must target people in transition
  • Ages 25-30 are critical “decision years” for church commitment
  • Married couples with young children are most likely to engage
  • Singles in early 20s less likely to be in area (still in Indianapolis)

International Immigration

Recent Trends:

  • Indianapolis metro +43,000 international immigrants since 2020
  • 50% of Indianapolis metro growth since pandemic from international migration
  • Younger, working-age immigrants fueling growth

Hancock County Impact:

  • International immigration trends not broken down by suburb
  • Likely concentrating in Indianapolis proper initially
  • Over time, immigrant families follow same suburban migration pattern

Ministry Implications:

  • Growing diversity in region
  • Cumberland (9.9% Hispanic) and McCordsville (14.6% Black, 4.1% Hispanic) show increasing diversity
  • Young adult ministry should consider cultural inclusivity
  • Language, cultural sensitivity, and outreach methods may need adaptation

Sources: Axios Indianapolis - Immigration, IU News - Immigration

Part 6: Key Trend Insights for Ministry Planning

1. Timing is Critical

The Next 5 Years (2025-2030) Are the Window of Opportunity:

  • 60% of projected growth through 2050 will occur by 2030
  • Hancock County adding ~12,000-15,000 residents in next 5 years
  • McCordsville could add 3,000-6,000 residents
  • New young adult ministry launched in 2026 can “ride the wave” of growth

Why This Matters:

  • Easier to establish ministry presence while community is forming
  • New residents are actively seeking churches and community connections
  • Competition from other churches may not be established yet
  • Ministry can grow alongside community (vs. trying to break into established market)

2. McCordsville Is the Strategic Priority

Evidence:

  • Fastest growth rate (4.17% annually, 32% since 2020)
  • Youngest median age (35.3 years)
  • Highest household income ($113,495)
  • Will double in population by 2035, quadruple by 2045
  • Only 5-6 miles from BRCC

Action Implications:

  • Geographic targeting: McCordsville should be #1 priority for marketing, outreach, events
  • Consider satellite ministry presence in McCordsville if growth continues
  • Partner with McCordsville community organizations, schools, businesses
  • Digital ads geotargeted to McCordsville ZIP code
  • Host young adult events in McCordsville venues

3. Life Stage Matters More Than Age Range

The Data Shows:

  • Growth is driven by family formation (couples buying homes, having children)
  • Median ages (35-40) suggest “young families” more than “young singles”
  • High household incomes indicate dual-income couples
  • 52% of Fortville families have children under 18

Strategic Considerations:

  • Young married couples appear more accessible in suburban context than singles
  • Singles population concentrates in Indianapolis urban core
  • However, integrated ministry (ages 22-32, both singles AND marrieds) remains most sustainable approach
  • Young marrieds may be easier to reach initially, but both demographics can be served within integrated structure
  • Children’s programs are a major draw for young families (BRCC already has this strength)

4. The Indianapolis Connection Matters

Marion County Is the “Feeder” for Hancock County:

  • Young adults start careers in Indianapolis
  • As they age, marry, have children → move to Hancock County
  • 6-year median age gap shows lifecycle progression

Ministry Strategies:

  • Consider “pre-connection” with Indianapolis young adults before they move
  • Digital presence, online community, social media reach into Indianapolis
  • Workplace ministry connections (many BRCC members likely work in Indy)
  • Frame BRCC as “your future church home” for Indianapolis young adults considering suburban move

5. Generation Z Is the Future

Coming Wave:

  • Gen Z is larger than Millennials in Indiana
  • Oldest Gen Z currently 29, will be 35 by 2030
  • Entire Gen Z generation will be 18-33 by 2030 (peak young adult years)

Preparation Needed:

  • Gen Z characteristics differ from Millennials (digital native, values-driven, diverse)
  • Ministry models that work for Millennials may need adaptation
  • Next 5-10 years critical to understand and engage Gen Z
  • Gen Z will provide leadership for 2030s and beyond

6. Growth Will Slow After 2040

Long-term Reality:

  • 60% of growth occurs by 2030, slower growth 2030-2050
  • After 2040, prime-age population growth slows significantly
  • Declining birth rates will impact all of Indiana

Strategic Thinking:

  • Next 15 years (2025-2040) are the “boom” era
  • Ministry launched now has 15-20 year window of rapid market growth
  • By 2040s, ministry will shift from “explosive growth” to “sustained maturity”
  • Build strong foundation now to sustain through future slower-growth period

Part 7: Comparative Growth Rates

Growth Rate Rankings (Annual %)

Communities:

  1. McCordsville: 4.17% (extraordinary)
  2. New Palestine: 2.4% (very strong)
  3. Greenfield: 1.4% (steady)
  4. Fortville: 1.6% (steady)

Counties:

  1. Boone County: 3.4% (fastest in Indiana)
  2. Hancock County: 3.1% (2nd fastest)
  3. Marion County: 0.6% (slow)

Context:

  • US national average: ~0.5%
  • Indiana state average: ~0.4%
  • Hancock County growing 7.75x faster than state average

5-Year Growth Comparison (2020-2025)

Location20202025Growth% Change
New Palestine2,7813,708+927+37.8%
McCordsville8,88812,234+3,346+32.1%
Greenfield23,55226,600+3,048+11.5%
Hancock County79,84091,525+11,685+14.6%
Marion County~976,000987,639+11,639+1.2%

Key Insight: Small communities (New Palestine, McCordsville) growing faster percentage-wise than larger communities, indicating suburban sprawl and new development.

Projected Growth to 2050

Location20252050Growth% Change
McCordsville12,23440,000+27,766+227%
Hancock County91,525111,800+20,275+25%
Marion County987,6391,010,000+22,361+2.3%
Indianapolis Metro2,100,0002,505,000+405,000+19.3%

Key Insight: Suburban counties will see 10x the growth rate of urban core over next 25 years.

Part 8: Implications for Young Adult Ministry

Market Size: Growing Dramatically

Current Young Adult Population (Ages 20-30) in BRCC Service Area:

  • Conservative estimate: 4,300-5,800
  • Hancock County total: 10,000-12,000

Projected Young Adult Population by 2030:

  • BRCC Service Area: 5,500-7,500 (+25-30%)
  • Hancock County total: 13,000-15,000 (+25-30%)

Projected Young Adult Population by 2050:

  • BRCC Service Area: 6,500-9,000 (+50-55%)
  • Hancock County total: 15,000-18,000 (+50-60%)

What This Means:

  • Market is expanding, not contracting
  • Every year, more young adults move to area
  • Young adult ministry has growing pool of potential participants
  • Even modest “market share” (2-3% of young adults) could mean 100-200 participants

Competition: Window of Opportunity

Current Landscape (requires further research):

  • Unknown how many churches in area have active young adult ministries
  • New Palestine is small town (3,700) = limited church competition
  • McCordsville is growing so fast, churches likely haven’t caught up

Strategic Advantage:

  • BRCC launching young adult ministry in 2026 = early mover advantage
  • New residents seeking churches = opportunity to establish presence
  • Community still forming = can shape church culture
  • Next 5 years critical to establish brand as “young adult church” in area

Risk:

  • If BRCC waits 3-5 years, other churches may fill void
  • Rapid growth means opportunities won’t last forever
  • “Strike while iron is hot” principle applies

Programming Focus: Follow the Data

What the Trends Tell Us:

  1. Target young families (25-35) more than singles (20-25)

    • High household incomes and median ages suggest married couples
    • Family formation is driver of suburban migration
    • Singles likely staying in Indianapolis urban core

  2. Leverage children’s programs as draw for young parents

    • BRCC’s existing strength aligns with market need
    • Young families moving to area for schools = seeking family-friendly church

  3. Provide community for transplants

    • Many young adults new to area, don’t have friend networks
    • Social connection is major draw for church involvement
    • Small groups, couples events, neighborhood connections

  4. Meet practical needs of life stage

    • Home buying, marriage, parenting, career development
    • Practical teaching and support = high value

  5. Digital engagement for Indianapolis young adults

    • Reach “future residents” before they move
    • Online community can transition to in-person when they relocate

Resource Allocation: Invest Now for Future Returns

The Math:

  • Current: 4,300-5,800 young adults in service area
  • 2030: 5,500-7,500 young adults (5 years from now)
  • 2050: 6,500-9,000 young adults (25 years from now)

If BRCC captures just 2% market share:

  • 2026: 86-116 young adult participants
  • 2030: 110-150 young adult participants
  • 2050: 130-180 young adult participants

Investment Rationale:

  • Staff time, budget, and facilities for young adult ministry are investments in fastest-growing demographic
  • Returns will compound over time as community grows
  • Young adults served today become mature leaders in 2030s-2040s
  • Intergenerational impact: Young families with children = Sunday School growth, VBS growth, youth group pipeline

Conclusion

Three Key Takeaways

1. The Demographic Wind Is at Your Back

  • You are not trying to reach a declining or stable population
  • You are positioned in one of the fastest-growing areas in Indiana
  • The next 5 years will bring historic growth
  • Ministry launched now will benefit from population expansion

2. Act Now, Not Later

  • 60% of projected growth occurs by 2030 (next 5 years)
  • Window of opportunity for early mover advantage
  • New residents actively seeking churches and community
  • Delay = lost opportunity as market matures and competition increases

3. Follow the Data, Not Assumptions

  • Data shows young families (25-35, married, children) more than singles (20-25)
  • McCordsville is clear priority for geographic targeting
  • Life stage matters more than age range
  • International diversity increasing, should inform approach

Strategic Recommendation

Launch comprehensive young adult ministry in 2026 targeting:

  • Primary demographic: Young married couples and young families (ages 25-35)
  • Primary geography: McCordsville, with secondary focus on New Palestine, Cumberland
  • Core programming: Couples small groups, parenting support, social/community events
  • Supporting programming: Children’s ministry excellence (already a BRCC strength)
  • Digital strategy: Reach Indianapolis young adults pre-move
  • Timeline: Launch spring 2026, aim for 50-75 participants by end of 2026, 100-150 by 2030

Next Steps

  1. Review national young adult research to understand generational characteristics, needs, and spiritual trends
  2. Study successful young adult ministry models from other churches
  3. Address singles vs. all young adults question explicitly
  4. Develop specific ministry recommendations tailored to BRCC context
  5. Create implementation plan with timeline, budget, staffing

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